Challenges posed by forthcoming Bihar assembly elections for practically all leaders, parties and alliances in the fray from numerous angles have also led to numerous speculations. At present, the polls appear to be tight race for all. Interestingly, the success of India-bloc’s 16-day yatra (march) led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav (Rashtriya Janata Yadav) and other leaders has certainly to a degree caught their key rivals – Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal-United (JD-U) off-guard. It also appears to have given a new boost to Rahul’s expectations of his own party’s prospects in the state. And this is where it is imperative for him to be on guard. Yes, he needs to be on guard not from just India-bloc’s rivals but also from his own over-confidence about the possible electoral impact of the massive response received by yatra for voters’ rights. In addition, he cannot afford to underestimate the political importance of his regional allies, particularly popularity of Tejashwi in Bihar.
Besides, over-confidence in one’s own political appeal doesn’t always help. It can also have limited electoral reach. The mega-politico-religious card used by Prime Minister Modi, in the name of Ayodhya-temple, failed to help his party win 400 seats or even reach majority, during 2024 parliamentary polls. Certainly, Rahul has a reason to feel pleased about great response received by India-bloc’s yatra. This also explains his reported demand for a share of more seats in the polls. But here is where he needs to be extra-cautious. He cannot afford to underestimate Tejashwi and his party’s political appeal. And he cannot choose to over-estimate his and his own party’s electoral prospects. It may be recalled, ahead of Karnataka assembly elections, Congress chose to elect Mallikarjun Kharge as the party president. Kharge is from Karnataka. It is possible, Kharge’s election as Congress president played a crucial part in victory of Congress in the Karnataka assembly elections. The simple point is that in assembly elections, importance of regional politics and leaders cannot be undermined.
Undeniably, political success achieved by BJP cannot be de-linked from the importance it has given at various levels to regional parties. It is trying the same card at present in Tamil Nadu. BJP’s success in Bihar would have probably been limited without it banking on alliance with Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JD-U) party. In Odisha, BJP earlier strengthened its base by aligning with Naveen Patnaik (Biju Janata Dal), with him as chief minister and then choosing to part company with him and heading the state government. BJP’s alliance with quite a few regional parties marks the same style- using them to build its own base in their states and then politicking to reduce their strength to the stage of their being pushed out of power electorally and BJP regional leaders taking over.
Considering dismal performance of Congress in the preceding assembly elections in Bihar, there is no guarantee that Rahul’s successful march will translate into votes this time. Politically, his priority should be to play cards which minimize chances of India-bloc’s rivals returning to power. But if he chooses to bank on primarily prospects of his own party, which may lead to rift with his key ally, that is Tejashwi, it would be almost equivalent gifting victory to BJP and JD-U. The “success” of India-bloc’s yatra may be primarily linked to Rahul’s image as a national leader to whom masses were eager to reach out to. However, this does not suggest that they identify him with their regional image.
With respect to noise made about Rahul’s positive image among minorities, this stands true of RJD’s political image also. A rift in seat-sharing between these two allies may also spell division in the votes of such vote-banks. Besides, however confident Rahul maybe about his own popularity and image, the same cannot be expected to spell his party-candidates’ victory in all seats contested by them.
There is apparently nothing surprising about Mamata Banerjee (Trinammol Congress Party) having chosen to keep a distance from Congress Party during assembly elections of West Bengal. She is not confident of political standing of Congress in her home state. Rather, there prevails the risk of seat-sharing with it spelling losses for her own party. It is feared, RJD may be compelled to consider this option if Congress remains adamant about its demand for more seats. BJP is certainly going to welcome this option. It is probably hoping that this does happen.
Undoubtedly, Congress fared better in 2024 parliamentary polls by emerging as the largest opposition party. That India-bloc contested as a coalition probably prevented BJP from winning majority. It is imperative for Rahul to give greater importance to fight Bihar polls as an alliance, for the victory of India-bloc, defeat of NDA and not just in interest of Congress. If the last option is primarily considered by him, RJD may be forced to give greater importance to its own party. That RJD won the maximum number of seats (75) in 2020 Bihar polls cannot be sidelined against 74 won by BJP and 19 by Congress. It is possible, the recent yatra may not have succeeded without popular base of Tejashwi and his party. Surprisingly, Congress has till recently remained guarded about naming him as India bloc’s choice as the chief minister. If he is named, prospects of India bloc faring better would certainly increase. Rahul needs to be on guard about being too confident regarding his party’s electoral prospects and pessimistic about that of RJD in Bihar elections. Over-confidence about his political image may prove costly for his party and India bloc’s electoral gains in Bihar. At present, if Rahul thinks he can gamble on this, BJP and JD-U are likely to have the last laugh. Before it is too late, Rahul needs to be on guard about being too over-confident and gambling on it!