Pakistan seen as net security provider in Gulf after Saudi agreement

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan has positioned itself as a net security provider in the Gulf region after signing a bilateral defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, security experts say, as they interpret the accord as including Islamabad’s nuclear deterrence.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” in Riyadh on Wednesday.

“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” a statement released by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said.

In an opinion article for Arab News, Jamal Al Harbi, a media attache at the Saudi embassy in Islamabad, noted that the pact “includes defense industry collaboration, with potential for technology transfer and co-production of military equipment, as well as capacity building and training.”

Defense partnership between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 1967 with a security pact that brought Pakistani officers to the kingdom to train Saudi officers. In addition to the arrangement which lasted until the 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq war, Pakistan deployed a full division of troops to Saudi Arabia in 1982 even without a military alliance pact in place. The relationship has since extended to joint exercises and cadet training.

“The previous agreements were mainly protocols for joint training or the deployment of Pakistani troops in specific roles within Saudi Arabia, but not any thorough guarantees from Pakistan vis-a-vis Saudi defense,” Umer Karim, a researcher focusing on the Middle East at the University of Birmingham, told Nikkei Asia.

Jamal also noted in his commentary that “[w]hile past cooperation was often ad hoc or issue-based, the new pact institutionalizes the relationship, embedding defense into the very fabric of bilateral ties.”

Experts believe that Pakistan was able to sign the deal because the U.S. failed to give security assurances to Gulf countries after the Israeli attack on Qatar earlier this month.

Khalid Rehman, chairman of the Institute of Policy Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, said that when Qatar, a state with close ties to both the U.S. and Israel, was targeted, it was natural for Saudi Arabia to feel vulnerable. “This sense of vulnerability likely played a role in Saudi decision-making,” he said.

Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute, an Islamabad-based think tank, agrees. “Pakistan took advantage of American reluctance to support Arab partners and shaped this Security Agreement with [the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia],” he told Nikkei.

The most significant aspect of the defense accord lies in Pakistan’s changing security role in the region.

“Pakistan is proving itself to be a net security provider in the Gulf,” Cheema said, meaning that Pakistan is now seen as adding to Gulf stability, rather than focusing solely on its own security.

This still image from a Pakistan military handout video shows a Hatf IX (NASR) missile being fired during a test at an undisclosed location in Pakistan April 19, 2011. Pakistan earlier test fired a newly developed short range surface to surface ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear warheads, the military said. (Photo by Pakistan Military Inter Services Public Relations via Reuters)

Some observers see Pakistan’s nuclear capability as one reason for its becoming a regional net security provider. There has long been speculation about a special arrangement between it and Saudi Arabia relating to its nuclear weapons.

Bob Woodward’s book “War,” for example, touches on a meeting between Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham. At the meeting, the topic was broached of whether the prince was seeking to enrich uranium. Graham reportedly said: “That’s going to be hard to do because people are afraid, you’ll create a bomb.” The prince replied: “I don’t need uranium to make a bomb; I’ll just buy one from Pakistan.”

The University of Birmingham’s Karim noted that the Saudis have not signed a deal specifically mentioning nuclear weapons, as they have considerable good conventional weapon systems themselves, but the latest Pakistan-Saudi accord suggests that Riyadh now has access to Islamabad’s nuclear deterrence. “The language of the declaration hints it is Pakistan’s all-encompassing deterrence [including nuclear], which will now be available to Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Syed Muhammad Ali, an Islamabad-based security expert, points out that the agreement is “aimed at promoting regional peace and security, not based on any aggressive intentions against any other country.” Still, many believe that it will reshape the regional balance of power.

“This agreement will likely damage Saudi-India ties and also give Saudi Arabia an alternative to the U.S. security umbrella, which can no longer be trusted,” Karim said.

The pact also offers Islamabad the chance to benefit from Saudi Arabia’s advanced and modern weaponry, such as the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, Patriot Missile systems and Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems (APKWS).

“[Saudi Arabia’s weaponry] will serve as an additional strength for Pakistan. Together, both states will be better positioned to defend themselves and enhance their collective security,” Rehman told Nikkei.

There is an Iranian aspect to the developments as well.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have often limited the space for Pakistan-Saudi cooperation. But that situation has also improved. “After the recent rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, this obstacle has been reduced, making deeper ties between Islamabad and Riyadh easier,” Rehman said.

Karim believes that Iran will not view this development positively. But since the country is now fixated on the threat from Israel, Tehran “will probably ignore this development for now,” he added.

The article appeared in asia.nikkei