Political suspense over who will be next chief minister of Bihar is expected to end on November 14 as this is scheduled to be the date of counting of votes to be cast here in two phases on November 6 and 11. The key battle is between National Democratic Alliance (NDA)- which includes Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and its primary opponent – INDIA bloc. In Bihar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, among other rivals of NDA, are key members of INDIA bloc. BJP apparently expects the attention devoted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to state’s development to tilt the electoral balance in its favor. Through course of this year, he has visited the state more than six times with each focused on major development projects. The key question is will his campaign, that is Modi-wave, help NDA win this election?
It may be noted, Modi-wave failed to win BJP majority in 2024 parliamentary elections. In state elections, voters tend to give greater importance to regional leaders. Ironically, BJP does not appear to have a key regional leader in Bihar who can be expected to play a major role in turning the political tide in the party and/or NDA’s favor. In Uttar Pradesh (UP), for instance, BJP’s standing primarily rests on the political importance enjoyed by Yogi Adityanath, the present chief minister of UP. It may not be wrong to say that in no other state can BJP boast of as important leader as Yogi, whose popularity is probably responsible for BJP’s electoral gains in UP in parliamentary as well as assembly elections. Prior to assuming office as state’s chief minister, he served as member of Lok Sabha for five consecutive terms. At present, he is holding office as UP chief minister for the second term. BJP has not had any member of its party hold office as Bihar chief minister.
Nevertheless, prospects of NDA returning to power in Bihar by banking on its alliance with JD-U cannot be sidelined. Speculations are certainly being voiced on whether JD-U chief, Nitish Kumar will succeed in returning as the state chief minister for the tenth term. At the same time, questions are also being posed about whether his health and age (74) will permit him to hold office again. A lot depends on how well does the NDA perform and whether BJP can count on forming the state government with/without alliance of JD-U. It is possible, only if NDA secures a good majority, a political understanding may be reached between BJP and JD-U. Nitish may be offered a higher political position (perhaps that of the vice-president), if he steps aside to let a BJP member become the state chief minister.
It is also possible, political cards may not favor NDA as much as this alliance is desirous of. The political tide may shift in support of its key rival, that is the INDIA bloc. Several factors may prompt voters to choose in favor of INDIA bloc. However popular Nitish Kumar may be, the fact that he has been at the helm for too long cannot be ignored. Voters, particularly the younger generation, may be keen for a change. Besides, signs of his showing medical weakness have probably not been missed by voters and certainly not by media. Several projects announced or inaugurated by Modi during his visits to Bihar have certainly received substantial media coverage. However, questions are also being raised regarding such steps being taken just ahead of elections. In other words, these are being viewed as part of NDA’s electoral campaign and not just state’s development agenda.
On their part, there is no denying, members of INDIA bloc, including leaders of Congress -Rahul Gandhi, RJD – Tejashwi Yadav, Samajwadi Party (SP)- Akhilesh Yadav and others, appear to have succeeded in attracting people’s attention to their campaign. Prospects of this being a close fight between NDA and INDIA bloc cannot be ignored. It may be recalled, during the last polls, RJD emerged as the party with largest number of seats, even though it was ahead of BJP by just one seat. Tejashwi’s popularity as a strong regional leader in Bihar cannot be under-estimated. Certainly, Nitish too is very popular but his age, health and desire of people for change may prompt voters to decide otherwise. In addition, issues such as unemployment and other problems faced by people may influence their electoral decision. During the preceding assembly polls (2020) against 75 seats won by RJD, 74 by BJP, Nitish’s party won only 43. The percentage of votes won by RJD was around 23%, against 19% of BJP and 15% secured by JD-U.
Chances of Nitish Kumar’s party (JD-U) helping NDA sweep these polls seem to be quite limited. What needs to be watched for is whether Modi’s campaign, in other words- the Modi-wave, has the magical impact leading to NDA, particularly its key party, the BJP, perform better than it has to date in Bihar assembly elections. It may be worth noting, INDIA bloc’s performance in 2024 parliamentary elections restricted BJP from gaining majority. It definitely succeeded in limiting impact of Modi-wave in 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This was apparently only possible because of its campaign’s impact on voters. Now, it shall be revealed on November 14, the degree to which voters in Bihar are moved by INDIA bloc’s campaign, the appeal still held by Nitish Kumar and/or the impact of Modi-wave!