Ironically, following National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s electoral “victory” in Bihar, speculations are being voiced about the same being repeated in West Bengal. Of course, if votes are manipulated, manufactured and Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) tampered with, anything is possible. At least it seems so. Besides, there is no knowing as to what impact the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls may have, which has been described as “unplanned, chaotic and dangerous,” by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Voicing her concern, in a letter to Chief Election Commissioner (CEC), Banerjee has called for a halt in this exercise. Prospects of her request being complied with may be viewed as fairly limited.
Nevertheless, the political reality of West Bengal politics hardly being similar to that of Bihar from more angles than one cannot be ignored. West Bengal does not fall in the Hindi belt as does Bihar. During assembly polls, electorally, people tend to give greater importance to their regional leaders than to those from outside the state even though they may be national celebrities. This may explain Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s compulsion to bank upon Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (Janata Dal-United) while campaigning for Bihar Assembly polls. BJP had no option, being devoid of any regional ally as popular as Nitish within its own ranks to apparently win electoral support of people. Ironically, BJP falls short on this front in West Bengal. It cannot boast of any strong regional leader/ally’s support to help in its campaign for assembly elections. Given that West Bengal is not in Hindi belt, this limitation has further restrained BJP’s success in state’s assembly elections. Attempt made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to enhance his political appeal by moving around in clothes similar to those of Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore failed to secure BJP the needed electoral support during the preceding West Bengal Assembly polls.
Interestingly, political shrewdness exercised by Mamata Banerjee in campaigning, accepting as well as rejecting alliances cannot be taken lightly. This specifically refers to her drawing a strict line in choosing not to align with Congress for state elections. Given that this party has limited appeal here, aligning with it would be equivalent to only decreasing strength of Trinamool Congress Party (TCP) in winning votes as well as seats. Of course, this amounts to Mamata turning its back towards India-bloc in her state polls but she’d rather do this than limit chances of TCP in winning assembly seats. The issue, at present, is not whether she is given the responsibility of heading the India-bloc. This would carry weight and be debatable only when parliamentary polls are around the corner.
At present, the key issue is, whether following NDA’s victory in Bihar, can it repeat the same in West Bengal? As mentioned earlier, politics in West Bengal is different from that of Bihar at several levels. In Bihar, even if tampering with electoral rolls and votes is not taken into account, the decision of several sections to support Nitish Kumar despite it being associated with BJP cannot be dismissed. Nor can the limited support of Congress be ignored in both the states be taken lightly. In Bihar, however, the key opposition party- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav went overboard in yielding seats to members of India-bloc. If perhaps, Tejashwi had followed the line pursued by Mamata in West Bengal, luck may have favored him a little. Can Mamata be imagined campaigning for her state polls alongside with any other leader from outside her state and her party? No. Till date, she has been primarily in the forefront with the mike in her hand. In Bihar-campaigning, this did not mark the style of even NDA leaders who have registered a “remarkable victory.”
Undeniably, if India-bloc failed Tejashwi in Bihar, prospects of it making any mark in West Bengal may be viewed as practically non-existent. In Bihar, it was the case of India-bloc trying its hand at pushing NDA out of power. But it failed to prevent Nitish Kumar from returning to power for the tenth term. In West Bengal, BJP aims to push Mamata Banerjee out of power and prevent her from returning for the fourth term. But here in is its major limitation. As indicated earlier, BJP doesn’t have any strong leader/ally from its party or NDA in the state to help it easily reach out to Bengali voters. In Bihar, the case is different. Not only it had alliance of Nitish Kumar but that state falls in the Hindi belt cannot be taken lightly. As it is, states beyond the Hindi belt are strongly conscious about their respective regional identities. The hype raised by certain stalwarts in power at the center about their Hindi identity has in all probability not been ignored by all beyond the Hindi belt. Regional identity, as suggested earlier, bears great significance during assembly elections. Of course, there is no knowing as to what impact tampering with electoral rolls and EVMs may have. But it cannot be ignored that Mamata Banerjee is in power at the state and she is least likely remain oblivious of these possibilities. Winning assembly elections in West Bengal may not be like it has been in Bihar, but BJP is certainly going to try hard!