US President Donald Trump recently demonstrated a tinge of both realism and idealism to express his administration’s nuclear weapons proliferation concerns and tacitly indicated worries regarding the shifting away of balance of power from the American grip.
President Trump effusing a sense of realism said the US would restart testing of its nuclear weapons after a hiatus of 30 years as many countries are conducting these tests secretly and swelling their nuclear arsenals. He remarked that the US has the nuclear capability to destroy the world 150 times which indicated that the US is not panicked by what is happening elsewhere rather other countries must take note of the American capabilities. He then remarked imbuing a sense of idealism that a denuclearized and a peaceful world is what he desires and which is in the interest of all that would divert resources away from a possible nuclear catastrophe to constructive purposes. But one thing is clear from President Trump’s oscillating views is his administration is worried about the phenomenon of nuclear proliferation and perceived loss of American hegemony.
Proliferation and Balance of Power Concerns
The US-Russia cooperation witnessed in the field of arms control in the aftermath of the Cold War began to unravel as Russian President Vladimir Putin started reclaiming the erstwhile Soviet space and objected to NATO’s eastward expansion and deployment of forces close to the Russian border. For instance, Russia suspended 2010 New START Treaty with the US which effectively limited the nuclear arsenals of both countries. Russia threatened to use low-yield nuclear weapons to break a possible a tight alliance between Ukraine and NATO countries resulting in defeat of Russia in Ukraine. Russia has revised its nuclear doctrine and declared it may carry out nuclear strike first against any nuclear weapon power that actively assists a non-nuclear belligerent country that is Ukraine. Raising American concerns, Putin in the recent past claimed that Russia had tested a Poseidon nuclear-capable super torpedo.
Since its first nuclear test in 1964 till 2019, China’s nuclear capabilities were tied to defensive purposes. It maintained defensive nuclear capabilities vis-a-vis the US and Russia to avoid a direct war with either of them. Since 2019, under President Xi Jinping’s supervision, Beijing sought to switch to an offensive deterrence posture by acquiring more Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. It is swiftly enhancing its nuclear arsenals with a bid to credibly challenge the US on the land, air and sea. China is developing tactical nuclear weapons which are intended to provide it leeway to manoeuvre in a conventional conflict with the US in the Indo-Pacific theatre. More arsenals can also effectively dissuade the US to militarily intervene in support of Taiwan. In just last 5 years, China has doubled its operational warheads to 600. Looking at the speed at which it is building nuclear warheads, it is estimated that it will reach 1500 by 2035. China is fast developing multi-pronged nuclear capabilities at three levels, land, sea and air with the objective that if US focuses on one, China will take advantage of the other.
On the other side, North Korea is continuously expanding its nuclear arsenals. It has expanded its arsenal to include missiles that can reach and hit the American mainland. Although the US along with Israel took formidable steps to strike down and destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, it is still not clear how much of such facilities have been destroyed by the operations. Iran has suspended international verification of its nuclear sites and facilities following the attacks.
The American intelligence agencies have found out that the Pakistani military is developing an ICBM that can reach the US territory despite Islamabad’s continuous claim that its nuclear strategy is tied to the sole objective of deterring India.
While Russia and US are going back on their commitments by parting ways with bilateral agreements concluded to control the arms race between the two, China and North Korea have demonstrated little willingness in arms control agreements.
Nuclear Conundrum
The US is becoming vulnerable to two-front amd multi-front wars as the informal alliance among Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is deepening. The American nuclear deterrence, lethality of its first strike and surviving capabilities from nuclear strikes can be easily overwhelmed if any two of these powers join forces. For instance, while the US embarks on a military campaign against China over Taiwan, Russia may invigorate its military campaign against its European allies at the same time. North Korea and Iran may also may flex their muscles in their respective regions when the US is militarily embroiled in the Indo-Pacific. The US nuclear deterrence, first strike and surviving capabilities will be greatly circumscribed in these circumstances. Although differences are noticeable among these regional powers, what unite them is the common purpose that is to upend the American hegemony by enmeshing it in conflicts on multiple theatres.
The American nuclear arsenal, once a bastion of might and deterrence, is gradually succumbing to the ravages of time, its venerable systems and infrastructure crying out for revitalization. The modernization efforts, so crucial to its rejuvenation, are ensnared in a quagmire of delays and crippling cost overruns, threatening to undermine the very foundations of national security. The allies no more feel secure under the American nuclear umbrella. The Trump administration’s mercurial foreign policy based on a ‘America First’ pedestal has brought about more diffidence among the allies as to the nuclear umbrella extended by the US. This has stimulated the allies to desire for their own nuclear weapons implying more proliferation that precisely the US does not want.
President Trump stressed on the need for the US to go for nuclear test considering surreptitious nuclear activities and tests by other countries such as Russia, China, Pakistan and North Korea. His remarks implied the perceived decline of American power position in the global arena which is largely tilting the balance of power away from it and many of its allies which were feeling protected under its nuclear shield are now switching to self-help. Since, Russia has backed down from major arms control agreements and China and North Korea went on a spree of unbridled proliferation, nuclear proliferation has become a credible threat to the US. The grim reality is the US faces a nuclear conundrum that has staked its preponderance in nuclear capabilities.